After what must have seemed like an eternity, Election Day is finally less than a week away. Records were set for money raised, money spent, presidential primary votes cast and almost every other quantifiable measure of the longest campaign season in the history of our country. But after all the money, days and television pundits telling us what to think, the only thing that really matters are the few moments of solitude we will spend next Tuesday fulfilling our role in the electoral process.
Electing a new President, a new Congress and a new State Legislature in New York is not a fleeting exercise. It is the culmination of over two hundred and thirty years of our greatest experiment, democracy. Sometimes it is hard to decipher our role as voters amidst the obscene amount of money spent, the non-stop political attacks and the sound-bite platforms to which our current campaigns have devolved. But the voters still play a role; and like the fat lady, nothing can happen until we’ve had our chance to sing.
With that in mind, I would like to take a brief, albeit ideological moment to encourage all those registered to vote. Yes, this is New York; and yes, Senator Obama is likely to win our state by margins of thirty points or better, but that does not excuse anyone from their responsibility of casting a vote. And if you think yours might not mean much, then I have just two words for you - Florida 2000. More important than the every vote matters lecture is our duty as citizens to cast a ballot and make a choice. Many who came before us were denied that right and while not exercising it is not as bad as those who once tried to suppress it, such indifference is also appalling.
Without further deliberation, my prediction is that Barack Obama will become the next President of the United States, and I believe his victory will be by no less than eight percentage points. Democrats will also gain between twenty and twenty five seats in the House of Representatives and six to nine seats in the U.S. Senate. With a population as polarized as any in recent history, Obama’s victory can be classified as no less than a complete landslide; and he will win states no Democrat has even competed in for decades.
His ascent to the White House, with an assist from Senators Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer coupled with greater advantages in Congress will benefit our state, which has the dubious distinction of giving more to the federal government than we get back. Hopefully, the Democrats burgeoning strength on the federal level will lead to fewer unfunded mandates and more tax dollars coming back to New York to improve our infrastructure, health care and educational systems that have fallen dangerously behind in recent years.
On the local level, the State Assembly will remain largely the same, with nearly all incumbents cruising to victory and Democrats retaining their substantial majority. Queens will be no different, sending all its Democratic candidates, mostly incumbents, back to Albany. The State Senate, however, controlled by the Republicans for nearly four decades is the real race to watch as the hours until Election Day dwindle down.
Democrats will need to pick up two seats to gain a majority and I predict they will accomplish this feat. I think they will win a net gain of three seats and come January, hold a two seat majority in the State Senate. Due to the change in leadership, our borough’s own, Senator Malcolm Smith, will ascend to the role of Majority Leader. Smith is a leader of exceptional vision and has the ability to successfully execute a new agenda in difficult financial times. Cast from the majority for the first time in over a generation, the Democrats slim advantage will likely grow by another five to seven seats as many long-time Republican incumbents will opt for early retirement rather than be relegated to minority status in the twilight of their legislative careers.
Thomas Jefferson once said, “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” I am not calling either party patriots or tyrants, and I am quite certain this will be a bloodless coup, but the sentiment remains. Change is necessary to take our country and state in a new direction. Election Day represents the most unique of opportunities. It is a chance to start something new by continuing something old - democracy.
NEWS & NOTES:
How the Queens Delegation to the City Council voted on term limits:
Council Member Vote
Joseph Addabbo NO
Tony Avella NO
Anthony Como NO
Leroy Comrie YES
James Gennaro NO
Eric Gioia NO
Melinda Katz YES
John Liu NO
Hiram Monserrate NO
James Sanders YES
Helen Sears YES
Peter Vallone Jr. YES
David Weprin NO
Tom White Jr. YES
