Governor Cuomo has set the date for the special election to replace disgraced congressmember Anthony Weiner. It will be held on the same day as the regular primary election, September 13. Many people might write this off as an easy win for any Democrat, but a closer look indicates that this could be a very competitive race.
The Ninth Congressional District has seen dramatic change over the last 50 years. The 1965 voting rights act shook up the Democratic Party establishment in Brooklyn, which had previously divided minority voters into a number of different congressional districts. With the Justice Department now having final say over district lines, and with their mandate to consolidate minority voters, the ninth became an almost entirely White district.
With recent immigration, that district now has large voting blocks of Hispanics and Asians, but it remains a district dominated by Jewish leadership. Post-Soviet Union we have seen a large influx of Russian Jews and other eastern Europeans who have far more conservative views on the role of government than the traditional liberal Jewish base. This is also a district that was significantly impacted by 9/11, both in the large number of casualties and the effect on the voters psyche.
In 2000, George Bush only received 30 percent of the vote, with 67 percent for Gore. But by 2004, the perspective of these voters had already begun to shift, with Bush receiving 44 percent of the vote this time. McCain also received 44 percent in 2008. In 2010, Weiner was challenged by Republican Robert Turner, an unknown candidate who only spent $300,000 to Weiner’s millions. But where previous Republicans could only count on roughly 30 percent of the vote, Turner got an astounding 39 percent. This reinforced the changing nature of the district, and told Republicans that this seat could someday be in play.
Well, someday came up pretty quickly and unexpectedly. Normally this would seem like a great opportunity for an ambitious Democrat, but with NY ready to lose two congressional districts in the next redistricting, this seat is now top on the chopping block. No currently elected Democrat is willing to give up a safe seat in Albany for a job that is likely to be eliminated next year.
Republicans, meanwhile, are brainstorming and searching for the best candidate they have to win this seat. A Republican elected in the ninth could potentially save the seat from being drawn out, which would prevent losing one of the few predominantly Jewish districts left in NY. And with the emerging conservative Jewish voice in NY-9, this could become a key district for Republicans on every issue from Israel and terrorism to tax cuts and entitlement reform.
Robert Hornak is a Queens-based political consultant, blogger, and an active member of the Queens Republican Party.
