15th District Contest Resembles Obama-Romney
If the results of a poll of the 15th State Senate District race released on Monday, Oct. 8, by Siena College are any indication, the contest between Democratic State Sen. Joseph Addabbo and Republican City Council Member Eric Ulrich could be a real nail-biter on Election Night.
With less than a month before the election, Addabbo and Ulrich are in a virtual dead heat in the poll of likely voters conducted by the Siena Research Institute at the college based in upstate Loudonville. Forty-five percent of the respondents said they would vote for Addabbo, while 43 percent stated that they favored Ulrich.
The margin of error for the poll-conducted by phone between Monday, Oct. 1, and Thursday, Oct. 4-was plus or minus 4.7 percent.
As with any election, undecided voters figure to tip the scales in the favor of one of the candidates. The Siena poll found that one in eight of those surveyed-12 percent-de- clared themselves to be undecided or not voting in the election at all.
“The seat in Queens-despite its overwhelming 33-point Democratic enrollment advantage-is viewed by the Republicans as an opportunity to defeat a Democratic incumbent and increase their majority,” said Steven Greenberg of Siena College. “There’s no question that the Democrats are going to have their hands full in trying to hold onto this seat.”
Siena noted that 53 percent of the poll respondents identified themselves as Democrats, while 20 perby cent were Republicans and 23 percent were independent or registered with a third party. Most of the participants (61 percent) live within the current 15th State Senate District, while the remaining reside in areas that were incorporated into the new 15th State Senate District through redistricting earlier this year.
The new district comprises parts of Ridgewood, Glendale, Maspeth, Middle Village, Forest Hills, Rego Park, Woodhaven, Richmond Hill, Ozone Park, South Ozone Park, Lindenwood, Howard Beach, Broad Channel and part of the Rockaways.
Not surprisingly, most of the voters who identified themselves as Democrats or Republicans went with their respective parties’ nominees. Sixty-three percent of Democrats said they would support Addabbo, while 76 percent of Republicans indicated they would back Ulrich.
Among those who claimed to be independents, Ulrich had a 30 percent edge on Addabbo, gaining the support of 57 percent of the participants.
The Siena poll found that Addabbo leads Ulrich by five points in areas which he currently represents in the State Senate, but Ulrich leads Addabbo by the same number in new areas of the 15th State Senate District. The Republican candidate also has an eight-point advantage among voters in his home 32nd City Council District, which was formerly represented by Addabbo.
While the State Senate as a whole was viewed unfavorably by nearly half of the participants, Addabbo had a favorability rating of 40 percent, while 33 percent rated him unfavorable.
Forty-two percent of voters rated Ulrich favorably, but just 17 percent had an unfavorable opinion, and 41 percent offered no opinion.
Broken down by issues, the Siena poll found that Addabbo had an edge among voters on issues such as job creation, education and health care. He and Ulrich were nearly tied on other matters including taxes, the state budget and ethics.
The presidential race figures to be a factor in the 15th State Senate election, and the Siena poll found that the district seems to closely resemble a swing state.
Forty-eight percent of those surveyed said they would likely vote to re-elect Democratic President Barack Obama, while 45 percent said they would support the Republican nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Seven percent said they were either undecided or not voting.
Both presidential candidates seem to be polarizing among those polled in the 15th State Senate District. Obama had a favorable rating of 49 percent and an unfavorable rating of 48 percent; Romney’s favorable and unfavorable numbers were 47 and 48 percent, respectively.
Addabbo defeated 10-term incumbent State Sen. Serphin Maltese by a 14-point margin during the 2008 election that propelled Obama to the presidency. Even so, Addabbo was re-elected two years later by virtually the same margin over former City Council Member Anthony Como during a mid-term election in which Republicans made gains nationally.
“While Addabbo is more known than Ulrich to voters, Ulrich has the better favorability rating. The presidential race looks very similar to the senate race,” Greenberg added. “In other words, this figures to be a barn burner straight through Election Day.”
Addabbo and Ulrich have been making the rounds at candidates’ night forums and debates hosted by civic associations around the district’s coverage area. They stumped for votes at the Glendale Property Owners’ Association meeting last Thursday, Oct. 4; see the story on Page 6 for details. Both men also participated in a forum hosted by the Middle Village Property Owners/Residents Association on Monday night; see next week’s issue for a full report.
Both candidates are also scheduled to face off at a debate co-sponsored by the Juniper Park Civic Association, the New York Daily News and the Times Newsweekly next Thursday night, Oct. 18, at 7:45 p.m. at Our Lady of Hope School, located at the corner of Eliot Avenue and 71st Street in Middle Village.
The general election is Tuesday, Nov. 6. Polls will be open from 6 a.m. until 9 p.m. For information on voting, call 1-212-VOTE-NYC or visit www.vote.nyc.ny.us.
