Primary Predictions:Rock-Solid Locks To Out-On-A-Lark

I know that predictions are not worth the paper they are printed on unless they are a little out there and actually come true, but that won’t stop me this week from making a few (alright, a lot).
Will anyone stop Fernando Ferrer from hitting the magic 40 percent needed to avoid a run-off? (Yes) Will any insurgent candidate win a City Council election in Queens? (No) These predictions and more will be explicated for you now. Take them for what they are worth (see above).
Vote early and vote often, as former Mayor Richard J. Daley might say in Chicago. The most important thing you can take from this column today is an impetus to get out there on September 13 and vote for someone…anyone!
For those who haven’t been paying attention, here’s what you’ve missed.
Anthony Weiner has surged into second place, if you believe the latest NY Times poll (and his own press releases). The bad news for his campaign: It’s only by one point over third place contestant C. Virginia Fields and three points over the sliding Gifford Miller.
Weiner is a sharp cookie, and I’ll admit that it surprised me to see him mired in the cellar for so long. Miller’s campaign has gotten a ton of negative press in the last two months — mostly having to do with his campaign and not his Speakership. Fields has also had a fair amount of bad press, but has also dropped off a lot of radar screens as a legitimate threat to Ferrer.
And what of the favorite? Does he have it in him to pass 40 percent? I say no…He got almost 36 percent in 2001, but now he will have to share at least a portion of the minority vote with Fields.
And by the way, anyone who still votes along racial lines in this city clearly doesn’t get it. The new divide in New York is along economic lines. I think a lot of people recognize this, and its going to resonate in the results this year.
Regardless, I will concede a spot in the runoff to Ferrer. He’s polling too high to ignore and he has broad support from more than just his Latino base. But who will join him?
I’ll go with the upstart Weiner campaign.
It would have been an upset before this Times poll came out, as I think most people expect Miller’s millions to survive this round. And, truth be told, Miller has been very good to Queens in his tenure. You have Tom Manton to thank for that, methinks. Miller is a smart bet to do well in this neck of the woods.
But I’ll take a bit of a chance and say the kid from Brooklyn makes the semifinals, if you will.
I’ll predict Ferrer 34 percent, Weiner 24, Miller 23, Fields 17, Miscellaneous 2.
For whom will I cast my vote? I can’t say, but if you read between the lines, you’ll figure it out.
For Public Advocate, Betsy Gotbaum has been absolutely hammered by Stormin’ Norman Siegel, former head of the ACLU. His fist-pounding rhetoric and backing of obscure, insurgent candidacies is not going to work, though.
Gotbaum handily dismissed Siegel in the 2001 runoff and I see no reason to think that will change this time around.
Andrew Rasiej is an up-and-comer, who will be elected to something in this city in the years to come. His one-trick pony routine on WIFI just isn’t enough this time around.
And besides, no one really knows what the hay public advocate does anyway, so what’s the difference? Let Betsy hang onto her gavel at City Council meetings and be done with it.
And speaking of the City Council…
Let’s take a quick run through the races, which I think is all most of them are worth.
In District 21, Hiram Monserrate will cruise to an easy re-election. He pulled 75 percent last year against ghost candidate Luis Jimenez (he of the no Voter Guide entry and non CFB-reporting). This year Marlene Tapper raised some $24,000 in her bid to oust Monserrate. But the incumbent is too popular — call the race for him by a margin of 65 percent to Jimenez’ perplexing 20 and Tapper’s 15.
In the 24th, I am obviously waaaay too biased to give you an honest assessment of the candidates — incumbent Jim Gennaro and challengers Dilip Nath and Renee Lobo.
That still does not preclude me from making an obvious prediction — Gennaro big; 70 percent to Nath’s 13 and Lobo’s 17.
In the 25th, Helen Sears is taking some whacks from insurgent candidate Bryan Pu-Folkes, a public interest lawyer and immigrant advocate who’s raised more than $70,000. He’s been endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters and is creating a buzz with his high-energy campaign. Rodolfo Flores has not raised much money and probably won’t be a factor.
Sears didn’t have to campaign in 2003, but spent this summer knocking on doors and greeting voters like someone who is taking her competition seriously. She’ll win as a result, but it will be close. Call it 54-to–45-to-1 for Sears.
Pu-Folkes will be on the City Council or in the state legislature at some point soon though.
District 28 is an interesting one. There we have our favorite political punching bag, Allan Jennings, not fighting for his life. By that I mean despite a bevy of contenders and a real threat to his Council seat, he’s acting like it’s no big deal and that, despite his reputation and respect level amongst his colleagues and political players, his re-election is imminent.
I unfortunately have to concur — it is. Jennings survives a close-call from Thomas White, the former Councilmember, and a host of others. If anyone knows how to win a tight election, it’s Jennings — to the annoyance of Tom Manton and company at County HQ. Jennings won his seat by less than 500 votes and re-election by less than 100. Maybe he’ll beat White by less than 10, but he’ll beat him. The rest of the pack finishes up the track.
In District 29, Joseph Nocerino seems like a guy with his heart in the right place. He’s running because he feels let down by city government and wants to give people an alternative to the current Councilmember, Melinda Katz. Unfortunately for him, Katz has 10 times as much money and could probably print enough campaign literature to bury Nocerino’s office for three weeks.
It’s tough to beat City Hall, Joe, but good for you for trying. Katz gets at least 75 percent.
James Sanders pulled 75 percent in 2003 against an opponent who raised nearly $30,000. This time around, his opponent, David Hooks, is backed by County, but has still only mustered less than half that. Sanders dances to victory with 70 percent.
That’s right, incumbents sweep and big money rules the day. Until the system is fixed, that’s how it’s going to be in these parts.
I hope I’m wrong, because blowouts are no fun to write about.
And if you think these numbers are ugly, just wait ’til November’s General Election.
politics@queenscourier.com