Last week Mayor Michael Bloomberg did something he has not done since August 2005 - he fell to an under 60 percent approval rating. The Marist College poll, conducted from November 17-19, which surveyed just fewer than seven hundred New Yorkers, could portend a much larger problem for Bloomberg as the economic crisis deepens and he gears up for a lengthy re-election battle.
Before the nasty battle over term limits, before he announced massive cuts to city agencies, and before his threat to repeal the $400 rebate for homeowners and their 7 percent property tax cut, 68 percent of New Yorkers rated his job performance as “excellent” or “good.” In that same poll conducted just seven weeks ago, only 32 percent gave him a grade of “fair” or “poor.” Now, 59 percent rate his performance in the more favorable category while 39 percent gave him the lower of the two grades.
Much like his now historic flip-flop on term limits, the sixteen point turnaround in poll numbers may have much broader implications than anyone at City Hall would like to admit. However, Bloomberg has been in this situation before and not only survived the storm, but thrived during the most difficult circumstances. In April of 2005, at the very beginning of his first re-election campaign, Bloomberg had an approval rating of 49 percent. But on Election Day, he amassed a staggering twenty point margin of victory over the Democratic challenger Freddy Ferrer.
Though the news was anything but promising for Bloomberg, it yielded encouraging results for the two mostly likely challengers to his crown. The poll showed Bloomberg with a 51-37 percent lead over Congressmember Anthony Weiner and a 52-32 percent advantage over Comptroller Bill Thompson. Though still trailing the mayor, Weiner and Thompson gained seven and five points respectively. Each could see more good fortune come their way as Bloomberg is forced to make more unpopular decisions to reduce the growing budget deficit in the coming year.
Term limits, arguably the most controversial of the issues factored into the latest survey also played a substantial role, but will not likely affect the long-term rating of the mayor. 40 percent of respondents in the poll said Bloomberg’s decision to change term limits made them less likely to support him for mayor next year compared with just 19 percent who claimed the decision made them more likely to support Bloomberg. However, the largest portion, 41 percent, said the term limits decision made no difference at all. As time passes between now and Election Day, other issues, like his handling of the economy are sure to be the deciding factor in the success or failure of his re-election.
Across the board cuts to city agencies, the possible firing of thousands of city employees, and property tax hikes for nearly a quarter of a million New Yorkers are just a few of the key issues that Bloomberg will have to deftly maneuver if he is to retain office. In the past, the people have shown support, by way of votes, for many of the difficult choices he has had to make. This time, however, may be different because some of the most difficult choices he will inevitably have to make lay stand directly between him and his third term.
Through straight talk and common sense solutions, Bloomberg has twice enjoyed success in convincing a plurality of the voters to choose him to run the city. His positions have always seemed less based in politics and more about prudence, a no-nonsense approach that hard-shelled New Yorkers identify and respect.
If the economy begins to rebound prior to the next election, Bloomberg will undoubtedly and deservingly receive a great deal of the credit and be in good position to once again claim electoral victory. But if the economy worsens, and Bloomberg’s solutions show no signs of returning New York City to financial solvency, the latest polling numbers could be the high-water mark for a drowning campaign.
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