David Weprin’s win in Tuesday’s Special Election demonstrates once again that name-recognition and the powers of incumbency are often too much for challengers to overcome.
Weprin outspent Friedrich heavily in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans four-to-one.
For challengers to win, especially where they are disadvantaged in terms of party enrollment, they must outspend their incumbent opponents in order to make up for their lack of name recognition and majority-party organizational support.
The fact that Bob Friedrich received 38 percent against Weprin, whose family has held the 24th Assembly District since 1972, is impressive in and of itself.
Weprin had the backing of nearly every elected official in the area and organized labor, which was instrumental in the Election Day voter pull operations that are essential to success in low-turnout special elections.
The campaign turned nasty in its final week, as the Weprin campaign circulated a controversial mailer, which made issue of Friedrich’s opposition to hate crimes legislation and included an image of a swastika, which was sent to Jewish households.
Friedrich, who like Weprin is Jewish, countered with a unity rally last Sunday attended by civic leaders and members of the local Jewish and Southeast Asian communities denouncing Weprin’s tactics.
Negative mailers are usually not used against a challenger unless they have already achieved a certain threshold of name recognition and competitiveness. Cleary, Team Weprin saw the race too close for comfort.
Queens Democrats certainly did not want a repeat of Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts, where a Republican was able to overcome a party enrollment disadvantage when Republicans voted in droves, Democrats stayed home, and Independents swung to the GOP.
But unlike in Massachusetts, Weprin was able to blunt the tide of Independents moving towards the Republicans by running on the Independence Party’s line. Voters not enrolled in any party comprise around 20 percent of the district’s electorate and are a crucial swing vote.
Friedrich may also have been disadvantaged as a Democrat running on the Republican line. Some diehard Republicans might have been reluctant to vote for him, and Special Elections are largely about appealing to the base.
Daniel Egers serves on the staff of Councilmember Dan Halloran, is Executive Director of the Queens County Republican Party, a Trustee of the Bayside Historical Society and President of the Friends of Oakland Lake. The views expressed in this column are his own.
