Last week, Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy announced he was switching from Democrat to Republican and running for governor. Levy won his last re-election for County Executive with around 96 percent of the vote and the support of the Republican and Conservative parties.
The only other announced GOP candidate for governor is former Congressmember Rick Lazio. Lazio is well respected in many circles, but has so far raised only around $600,000. Some Republican Party officials fear that Lazio will get steamrolled by presumptive Democratic nominee Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Levy has a war chest of $4.1 million left over from his Suffolk races.
Levy is known for his blunt outspokenness. Many believe that he can fashion an every-man, outsider image to appeal to voter dissatisfaction with Albany and government in general. He has already demonstrated an ability to garner Democratic and suburban votes in Suffolk County.
As Democrats outnumber Republicans three-to-two statewide, a Republican candidate must have crossover appeal to Democrats and swing voters, particularly moderate suburban voters, in order to be successful.
Lazio, to his credit, has run statewide in the past, against Hillary Clinton in 2000, getting 44 percent of the vote. Many Republicans are wary of Levy, who trails Lazio in a Siena College poll released this week of Republican voters, where the former Congressmember leads 46-16 percent. When voters are informed that Lazio is a former Republican Congressmember and Levy is a former Democrat, Lazio’s lead grows to 60-19 percent.
However, Levy’s announcement came on the last day of polling, so these numbers might not reflect that full impact of his entrance into the race.
Republican state committee members will vote on a nominee at the state convention in May. Lazio needs 25 percent of the members’ votes to secure a place on the primary ballot. Levy, as a party-switcher, would need 50 percent. Levy estimates he currently has the support of state committee members representing 40 percent of the vote.
Both Lazio and Levy face an uphill road against Cuomo. The Siena poll has Cuomo ahead of Lazio 59-21 percent and beating Levy 63-16 percent.
Expect the GOP to coalesce behind a candidate before or during their convention in May, with either Levy or Lazio endorsing the other.
