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Incumbent Advantages Hard to Overcome

For all the talk of an anti-establishment wave sweeping the nation, punctuated by Christine “I dabbled into Witchcraft” O’Donnell’s victory in Delaware’s U.S. Senate primary, incumbents in Queens not only prevailed in last week’s primary, but by strikingly solid margins, with a few exceptions.

Congressmember Gary Ackerman waged his most aggressive campaign in years, as indicated by his carnation adorned posters dotting the northeast Queens landscape. He defeated his primary opponent, Patricia Maher, 64-36 percent. While more than a third of the Democratic primary electorate voted against Ackerman, the fact he was able to stay above the 60 percent mark in a year that is hazardous for any incumbent is a testament to his staying power in his district.

Senator Shirley Huntley took the airwaves, a rarity for state Senate races in the New York City media market, and beat Lynn Nunes 73-27 percent, while in the 38th Assembly District, Michael Miller defeated Nick Comaianni, 77-23 percent. Other incumbents won with percentages ranging from 60-69 percent: David Weprin, Andrew Hevesi, Barbara Clark, and Jeff Aubrey beat Bob Friedrich, Joseph Fox, Clyde Vanel and Anthony Miranda, respectively.

The biggest exception was the blockbuster primary in the 16th Senatorial District, between Toby Ann Stavisky, Isaac Sasson and John Messer. Stavisky received only 45 percent of the vote, edging out Sasson’s 35 percent and Messer’s 20 percent. As northeast Queens residents know, Stavisky is a household name in the area; the late Leonard Stavisky, the Senator’s husband, represented the area in Albany for over 30 years.

The fact that a senator of Stavisky’s stature was held below the magic 50 percent line is an indication of voter discontent with the status quo and a testament to the brilliant campaign waged by Sasson. Indeed, many have said that Messer was a spoiler in the race, helping to split the anti-incumbent vote and siphoning votes from Sasson.

While it is true that incumbents are vulnerable this election cycle, for a challenger to prevail they need a confluence of favorable circumstances, such as a fundraising and an organizational advantage. Most of the challengers in Queens were significantly outspent by their incumbent opponents, and despite the general sentiments of discontent with the status quo, challengers need resources to effectively disseminate their message.

November 2 will be the next test of whether Queens candidates running against incumbents and the “establishment” can adequately channel voter dissatisfaction into wins at the polls.