Capping off a month of wild speculation and political rumors, President-elect Barack Obama announced his selection of Senator Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State. If approved by the Senate, Clinton will become the third woman to hold the highest ranking of the President’s cabinet positions and the first woman from New York to do so.
With Clinton’s nomination to head the State Department a virtual lock to be approved by the Senate, speculation has now turned to who Governor David Paterson will choose to fill the vacancy. Paterson has said that he will wait until her appointment is confirmed to make a decision, but that has not stopped the field of talking heads from offering their informed opinion.
Whomever Paterson appoints to fill the vacancy will have the arduous task of running three times within the span of a decade, a tall order for even the most campaign-tested politicians. Under the law, Clinton’s replacement would have to run for the seat in 2010, the same year the governor is up for his first election, 2012, the year Clinton’s vacated term was supposed to expire and again in 2018, the final year of a full senate term.
Complicating matters further, is the intense pressure Paterson is under from seemingly all demographics of the electorate. Women’s groups want Paterson to keep Clinton’s seat in the hands of a woman. Hispanics, troubled with the lack of Latinos serving in key state positions are advocating for the appointment of what would be the first Hispanic from New York to the Senate. Moreover, Upstate and Long Island constituencies are pushing for one of their own to balance out what they perceive as a downstate-heavy representation in top government positions.
Some of the most often talked about names surfacing out of the congressional delegation include Nydia Velazquez, who many consider a twofer because she is both Latino and a woman; Carolyn Maloney, who enjoys the backing of influential women’s groups and Catholic organizations; Brian Higgins and Kristen Gillibrand who represent areas in Upstate New York critical to Paterson in 2010; and Steve Israel of Long Island who has strong party support and is coming off a successful cycle as Chair of the New York wing of the Democratic congressional campaign committee. Outside of the congressional delegation, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has been mentioned as a possible successor, as has Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi.
Cuomo, who some see as a potential challenger to Paterson in a 2010 Democratic Primary has said he is not interested, but his name recognition, fundraising ability and Washington pedigree (former HUD Secretary to President Bill Clinton) make his name a tough choice to ignore.
Suozzi, who challenged Eliot Spitzer in the 2006 Democratic Primary, has gone through a rebirth of late in the Democratic Party, chairing the Governor’s Commission on Property Taxes and campaigning for Democrats across the state. He is a prodigious campaigner with the ability to raise the huge sums of money necessary to finance three statewide senate campaigns in a ten-year period and retains strong name recognition from his previous gubernatorial run. Suozzi is also a Catholic from Long Island, a demographic that Paterson will need if he is going to win his own re-election battle against a possible challenge from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Regardless of whom he chooses, Paterson is likely to anger at least one segment of the population he needs to win re-election. However, consensus building has been a strong suit for Paterson throughout his lengthy legislative career and brief stint as governor. To be re-elected, Paterson will need to draw white, middle-income suburban voters, trending from the suburbs of Long Island or Upstate New York to buttress the strong support he holds in New York City and minority communities across the state. His choice to fill Clinton’s seat may play a larger role in attracting those key demographics than any policy decision he makes over the next year, so when he chooses, he must choose wisely.
NEWS & NOTES:
If Cuomo is selected to replace Clinton, one name rumored as a possible replacement to fill the vacancy in the Office of the Attorney General has been Assemblymember Rory Lancman, a lawyer with strong legislative credentials and close ties to Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver.
Senate Democrats, led by Senator Malcolm Smith of Queens are holding a legislative retreat this week in Saratoga Springs to prepare for their ascension to the majority for the first time in over 40 years.
