Making Sense Of The Census

The Times is opting for Joe Crowley to be ousted. They reason that Crowley will lose his seat because Crowley and his chief backer, Queens Democratic head Tom Manton have been feuding with Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and because Congressional redistricting is in the hands of the Governor and the legislature. The Times has not considered the political power of another of Crowleys political friends, new U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton. Crowley and Clinton became close during the early days of the Clinton Senate candidacy and the two have remained political allies. Dont expect Hillary to countenance Crowleys ouster.
The same will be true of Nita Lowey. Lowey stepped aside to allow Clinton to run for the Senate. Lowey became a strong supporter of Hillarys Senate bid, not a rival. Lowey campaigned up and down the state, and her evident enthusiasm for the woman who replaced her on the ticket helped Hillary win thousands of converts to her cause. Dont expect Hillary to permit Nita Lowey to be redistricted out of her district.
That leaves Nydia Velasquez. Aside from her Puerto Rican ethnicity, Velasquez has little to recommend her. She has concentrated on her Brooklyn base, leaving most of her Queens constituency alone. She has been a reasonably effective member of the Small Business Subcommittee, but her local record has been negligible. Nor does she have the major allies that would assure her continuance in office. She is the most vulnerable of New Yorks Congressional delegation.
After Congressional redistricting comes redistricting of the state legislature and then of the City Council. Will the Legislature help or hinder the creation of minority constituencies? Will they keep neighborhoods together or tear them apart into different districts? Redistricting is always a game of Who Wins and Who Loses. For the answer to these questions, stay tuned.