Congressmember Anthony Weiner’s problems, as is often the case in politics, create opportunity for others; especially the race for mayor. It is still over two years away, but Weiner was considered the presumptive front runner for the Democratic nomination and the most challenging Democrat for any Republican candidate to beat.
But, by publicly dropping his pants, Weiner has all but dropped out of contention for the nomination for mayor. It was a far fall from grace for Weiner.
In 2005, Weiner ran a close second to Fernando Ferrer, forcing a runoff. It appeared very likely that Weiner would win the runoff, but as Bloomberg was seen as an extremely strong incumbent at that time, Weiner very smartly withdrew from the runoff, letting Ferrer run as the sacrificial lamb against Bloomberg. Weiner was already looking ahead to 2009.
But fate intervened with Bloomberg making his crass power play to change term limits to allow him to run for a third term. Weiner, not foreseeing the degree to which Bloomberg’s popularity would fall by the 2009 election, had stepped out of the race early.
In the end, even with Bill Thompson running a weak campaign and Bloomberg spending upwards of $100 million, Bloomberg almost lost the race. A strong challenge from Weiner then would very likely have succeeded.
Now, you can stick a fork in Weiner’s mayoral aspirations.
Meanwhile, the pack of Democratic wannabe’s suddenly becomes competitive. Top tier contenders include Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, Comptroller John Liu, Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former Comptroller Bill Thompson. None, however, seems to have the strength or sense of inevitability that a Weiner candidacy would have had.
Quinn’s strongest asset appears to be the support of Bloomberg, but how much that will be worth come 2013 is unknown. De Blasio, as a Massachusetts transplant, might also have problems thanks to Bloomberg’s legacy.
Both Quinn and de Blasio are far to the left, but Liu seems to be the favorite of the union bosses, having carried their water faithfully and without shame these last few years.
Thompson would be the likely one to fill in the populist spot left vacant by Weiner, and after his close loss to billionaire Bloomberg will have a compelling argument for being able to win.
That still leaves a place for a Jewish candidate. Can Manhattan BP Scott Stringer step up to fill that void? Or former councilmember David Yasskey? It’s too early to tell and with Weiner’s self-destruction many other candidates are likely to emerge over the next year, as both Democrats and Republicans sense tremendous opportunity with Weiner out of the pack.
Robert Hornak is a Queens-based political consultant, blogger, and an active member of the Queens Republican Party.
