Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka ensured the 2024 men’s and women’s US Open went with the formbook, with both favorites romping to victory at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center last September, but recent history suggests that Sinner and Sabalenka – undoubtedly the two best hardcourt players in the world – will struggle to retain their crowns this year.
The US Open has emerged as by far the most competitive and unpredictable of all four grand slams in tennis over the last decade, offering as many surprise victors as favorites.
It has also proved an incredible difficult slam to retain in both the men’s and women’s draw in addition to seeing a much greater variety of winners than any other slam on the circuit.
On the men’s side, there has not been a back-to-back champion at Flushing Meadows Corona Park since Roger Federer defeated Andy Murray in straight sets in the 2008 final. Every other slam has been retained within the last 18 months.
Sinner, meanwhile, became the 11th different player to win the men’s US Open since 2008 when he defeated Taylor Fritz last year. No other slam has seen more than six winners in that time span.
The US Open has also seen a raft of one-time and first-time grand slam winners in that period, with Dominic Thiem, Juan Martin Del Petro and Marin Cilic all winning their first and only title in New York. Alcaraz and Andy Murray also won their first slams of their careers in the Big Apple before going on to win other titles elsewhere.
The women’s draw, on the other hand, has not seen a back-to-back winner since Serena Williams defeated Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets in 2014, while there has been even greater variety among the women’s roll of honor over the past decade than the men’s.
Only Naomi Osaka has managed to win the US Open more than once since 2014, with nine different women claiming glory in the past ten years.
The US Open has also given rise to a number of sporting miracles over the past decade, with Emma Raducanu and Bianca Andreescu both winning the competition on the first attempt.
Raducanu and Andreescu are but two of four women to win their first and only grand slam at the US Open in the past decade, joining Sloane Stephens and Flavia Pennetta. Meanwhile, Osaka and Coco Gauff both won their first grand slam titles at Flushing Meadows before going on to victory elsewhere.
So, while Sinner and Sabalenka have been justifiably installed as favorites ahead of the 2025 US Open, there is no guarantee that they will go all the way for a second year in a row, despite being indisputably the best hardcourt players in the world in the men’s and women’s game.
The US Open, positioned at the end of a long summer of tennis, represents a different challenge to the other slams, while the night matches create a frenzied kind of atmosphere that is rarely replicated at any other event on tour. It is that combination of factors that saw both Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic suffer shock early-round eliminations at last year’s tournaments, with both players losing against unfancied opponents under the lights on Arthur Ashe.
Sinner, who played most of his matches during the daytime last year, will undoubtedly take to the courts at night this time around due to his status as defending champion. That alone creates a different type of pressure, which will give the likes of Alcaraz plenty of hope that they can knock the Italian off his perch.
The Italian may ironically benefit from a lengthy ban that saw him miss three months of the season prior to the French Open, making him more rested than the majority of players on tour, but there are still plenty of players capable of taking him out en-route to the Sept. 7 final. It also remains to be seen how the Italian recovers from an illness that forced him to retire against Alcaraz during the final of the Cincinnati Open on Monday afternoon. Sinner was 5-0 down in the first set at the time.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, appears to have lost the form that saw her win so convincingly in New York 12 months ago, with plenty of players waiting in the wings should she show any signs of weakness.
One thing is for sure; both the men’s and women’s US Open remains impossible to call yet again.
