With Election Day only a little more than a month away, two statewide races in northeast Queens are likely to garner a great deal of attention, and some political consultants believe the result of one race could impact the other.
In State Senate District 11, Republican State Senator Frank Padavan will be looking to hold onto his seat that he has held since 1972, facing a challenge from former Queens City Councilmember Tony Avella.
“I think it’s the number one priority right now for the Queens Democrats and the Queens Republicans,” said Steven Stites, of Stites Communications, who consults on a number of political campaigns throughout the state.
Currently, Democrats hold a slim 32-30 margin in the State Senate, and Republicans are hoping to retake the majority in the Senate – their best chance to regain power in the state facing an insurmountable minority in the Assembly and an extremely uphill climb in the Governor’s race between Andrew Cuomo and Carl Paladino.
During the 2008 election, Padavan barely held onto his seat defeating Councilmember James Gennaro by a few hundred votes, but some experts said that particular year had an anomaly that we won’t see this year.
“In 2008, Gennaro had Obama wind at his back and that was potent in terms of Democratic turnout and that factor is missing this year,” said Doug Muzzio, a public affairs professor at Baruch College. “Just as it’s missing in races all across the country, you don’t have a tail wind you have a head wind.”
Stites also believes that the anti-incumbency backlash that many are expecting this year won’t negatively impact Padavan.
“Padavan really transcends party, and he transcends incumbency,” Stites said. “When you run against Albany you aren’t running against Frank; they think of him as a neighbor and a friend.”
Meanwhile, in Assembly District 26, Republican Vince Tabone is challenging Democrat Ed Braunstein, the Queens Democratic Party’s choice who won a four-way Democratic primary in the race to replace Assemblymember Ann-Margaret Carrozza.
“The math of the district is difficult for Vince,” Stites said. “The district includes Bay Terrace and North Shore Towers where Braunstein is going to put up very good numbers. Tabone is going to have to work extra hard.”
However, Stites said that a strong showing by Padavan, where he captures in the high 50 percent of the vote, would be a great sign for Tabone and could put him over the top against Braunstein.
“If Padavan really circles the wagons and bring his people out, there’s a definite chance Tabone wins,” Stites said.
