It’s wide open race for the Queens County Democratic endorsement this year folks. A case can be made for all four candidates — C. Virginia Fields, Fernando Ferrer, Gifford Miller and Anthony Weiner. The more district leaders you talk to, the more opinions you get. We talked to a number of DL’s (district leaders) on the DL (down low) to gain some insight into next week’s decision.
Some candidates obviously have a better shot than others, but still, everyone is at least saddled up and in the gates (even if some are missing a jockey). For those punters among you, here are current odds:
Fernando Ferrer: OPENING LINE 9-5, CURRENTLY 9-2. Old Freddy in his third go-round for the mayor’s seat, who had a virtual lock on the Queens nod just a few short weeks ago, has seen his bid in turmoil since he waffled on the Amadou Diallo shooting. He’s lost staffers, confidence and, worse yet, poll numbers. He’s gone from clear frontrunner to only a four-point lead in the latest polls. Don’t think that County isn’t paying attention. Especially on the heels of their last major endorsement.
“They were going with Ferrer until he started plummeting,” said one DL. “They don’t want another [Howard] Dean.
Ah yes, you all remember Howard “We’re going to Kew Gardens and Jamaica, we’re heading to Astoria and Ridgewood and Bayside and Briarwood and Saskatchewan, rrrrrrooooooooaaaahhhrrrrrrr ” Dean.
Queens County endorsed the Vermont governor less than two months before his now-legendary Iowa meltdown, which signalled the beginning of the end of his White House aspirations. Tom Manton and Co. certainly don’t want another embarrassing endorsement.
Manton and Mike Reich did not return calls seeking comment.
“I don’t think Freddy looks like a winner now,” another DL said.
Still, Ferrer is in the lead, and has the backing of a number of Queens notables, most recently Rep. Greg Meeks.
C. Virginia Fields: OPENING LINE 20-1, CURRENTLY 8-1. What Fields has going for her is an apparent surge of support growing from the Southeast Queens representatives. But a surge might not be enough — apparently she needs a groundswell, and she’s not getting it.
“Personally, I like Virginia — I think she’s got an interesting story to tell,” another DL said on the DL (it’s amazing how opinions flow like water when there’s no name attached, eh?). “I think if the African-American community in Queens were really hot for Virginia, then I could see County going with her. But I just don’t sense that.”
Certainly, Meeks’ endorsement of Ferrer last week signals that the support Fields has in the southeast is lukewarm at best, and probably won’t be enough.
Gifford Miller: OPENING LINE 15-1, CURRENTLY 3-1. That’s right, it sounds like Giff is neck-and-neck right now with Freddy to take home Queens’ nod. The Council delegation is one of the strongest in the city, and they hold a lot of clout right now.
“I think they go with Giff,” said one DL. “He’s been the closest to the organization and the most loyal. He’s also been very good to Queens.”
“I’ve heard rumors that it was gonna be Miller,” said another. “In the absence of a clear winner, I think conventional wisdom is to go with Giff. If nothing else, it mollifies the councilmembers, gives them cover and leaves open the chance to cut a deal for Queens to have the next speaker.”
Another bonus: If Miller did not make the runoff election, “County would get another bite at the apple after the primary,” one DL noted.
Anthony Weiner: OPENING LINE 50-1, CURRENTLY 35-1.The self-proclaimed political outsider in the race is “a county guy who’s not the county guy” as one DL put it. Weiner is the only candidate who represents Queens at all, yet he is not endeared to the County organization and probably will not merit consideration. However, one DL said don’t count out anything: “I’ve seen so many different things happen over there, anything is possible.”
Ironically, I spoke to a number of DL’s who said Weiner would be their personal choice. “But I’m only one of 72,” said one of them, “and if you want the benefits of being on the team, we’ve all got to be strongly united.”
Another telling note from my conversations with DLs on the DL: County doesn’t think this is their year anyway.
“Frankly, they don’t believe any Democrat is going to win. They think Bloomberg is gonna win, as do I. They shouldn’t worry about who’s going win. They should go with the person who makes the most political sense.”
And that person is…??? We’ll say Giff.
Then again, I had Bellamy Road and Bandini in the Kentucky Derby.
politics@queenscourier.com